ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A prominent Iraqi Shiite politician and senior member of the Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC), led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, told Rudaw that the incumbent premier remains the strongest contender for a second term.
Bahaa al-Araji’s comments come amid speculation that Iraq’s ruling Shiite Coordination Framework - which backed Sudani’s rise to the premiership - may now be considering alternatives.
Iraq held its early legislative elections on November 9, followed by the general vote two days later. On Monday, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced the final results, with the Sudani-led RDC winning 46 seats in the 329-member parliament.
Later that day, the Coordination Framework declared it had formed the largest bloc in the legislature - a key step for the bloc that traditionally nominates the next prime minister.
In a statement, the bloc said it had reviewed “criteria for selecting a prime minister” and formed two committees: one to “discuss national entitlements” and another to “interview prime ministerial candidates.” The latter has been widely interpreted as a sign of the Coordination Framework’s wavering support for Sudani, who has openly stated his desire for a second term.
Speaking to Rudaw on Wednesday, Araji noted that while Kurdish and Sunni parties have expressed comfort with Sudani’s administration, the decision ultimately lies with the Coordination Framework as the “largest bloc.”
“I still maintain that he [Sudani] has more acceptance… He will be the strong candidate, and in my belief, he will assume the second term,” he added.
Following the announcement of election results, several names surfaced in local media as potential contenders, including National Security Advisor Qasem al-Araji, Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) chief Hamid al-Shatri, Interior Minister Abdul-Amir al-Shammari, and Basra Governor Asaad al-Eidani, among others.
However, Araji dismissed these reports, saying the names circulating “are not serious and have not been officially proposed.” He insisted that the committees formed by the Coordination Framework are not interviewing candidates but rather “setting conditions and mechanisms for electing the premier.”
On the key criterion for choosing Iraq’s next prime minister, the senior RDC figure said it will likely be the candidate’s governmental program. He argued that Sudani “has achievements on the ground, so no one can compete with him in this achievement.”
Araji also highlighted improved relations between Baghdad and Erbil under Sudani as another key achievement, noting that ties were “at their best” during his tenure.
Under Iraq’s post-2003 ethno-sectarian power-sharing arrangement, the premiership is allocated to Shiites, the speakership to Sunni Arabs, and the presidency to Kurds.
Recently, figures from the Takaddum Front - Iraq’s main Sunni Arab bloc - have stirred controversy by suggesting the presidency should not remain reserved for Kurds.
Reaffirming Sudani’s position, Araji said the presidency would remain, “by custom and tradition,” a Kurdish-held office. He expressed hope that Kurdish parties would agree on a single candidate to expedite the process.
Following the Iraqi election, both the United States and Iran praised the vote as strengthening the country’s democratic trajectory.
Araji argued that Washington and Tehran both favor stability in Iraq, noting, “This is the first time there have been statements of praise for the government and the person of the prime minister from the United States of America since 2003.”
Asked about US demands to “end external interference and armed militias,” said the issue of consolidating weapons under state control is “before being an American demand, an Iraqi national demand, Prime Minister [Sudani's] demand, the demand of the majority of blocs, and the demand of [Iraq’s] highest Shiite religious authority,” Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
As for Tehran’s stance, Araji said Iran is “genuinely comfortable with Sudani's government,” citing shared strategic interests centered on ensuring Iraq’s political and security stability.
Nwenar Fatih contributed to this article.