For over 70 days, the global community has been held hostage by the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. As the world waits to see if a diplomatic breakthrough or a fresh cycle of violence is on the horizon, a startling economic disparity has emerged. Despite being the primary target of international pressure, Iran’s oil industry has proven remarkably resilient, while the production and export capacity of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region have faced a near-total meltdown.
During the conflict, exports from Iraq and the Kurdistan Region have plummeted by 86 percent, and production has decreased by 68 percent. In contrast, Iran’s exports have only dropped by 31 percent, and its production by 48 percent. From this perspective, one can argue that the economic damage of the war to Iraq’s revenue sources has been far greater, as if the war were being waged against Iraq itself rather than Iran.
Production levels: A comparative look
According to Kpler data, Iran’s crude oil production last month was over two million barrels per day (bpd), down from four million in January 2026, before the beginning of the war. However, oil production in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region dropped to 1.35 million bpd in April, down from 4.52 million bpd in January of the same year.
Before the war, Iran’s average daily exports stood at 2.2 million barrels. By April 2026, this dropped to 1.52 million bpd (a 31 percent decrease). Meanwhile, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region saw an unexpected and drastic drop of 86 percent. In February, their average exports were 3.56 million bpd, but by April 2026, they hit a record low of only 300,000 to 400,000 barrels.
The disruption experienced by the Iraqi and Kurdish oil industries during the 40 days of war and 30 days of ceasefire has been much costlier than for Iran. While the conflict was centered on Iran, Iraq’s exports have bottomed out, while Iran continues to export significantly, primarily to China.
Kpler data shows that Iran’s exports have gone through various stages over the last decade, but the volume exported in February 2026 (2.2 million barrels) was unprecedented in the post-COVID era. Although Iran’s buyers previously included China, Syria, Venezuela, and India, during this war, nearly all of its exports have gone to China. For instance, in March 2026, out of 1.87 million barrels exported, 1.8 million went to China, with only 64,000 barrels going to other countries.
Earlier this year, Iran reached production levels similar to those during the JCPOA nuclear deal era. In January 2026, production was over four million bpd, though war conditions have since pulled it down to roughly two million.
Between 2015 and 2026, Iran’s lowest production levels were recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and the current conflict. The combined production of crude and condensate was 3.1 million bpd in March 2026 but fell to two million last month. This clearly illustrates the impact of Trump-era sanctions and the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Iran's energy sector.
Iraq and Kurdistan's production and exports during the war
Since the beginning of the US-Israel war with Iran in late February, the energy infrastructure in southern Iraq and the Kurdistan Region has suffered massive damage. This has driven total production down to approximately 1.3 million bpd. In the Kurdistan Region, production has fallen to levels only sufficient for domestic use - roughly 50,000 barrels.
In April 2026, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region's total production fell to 1.
