ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The US blockade on Iranian ports is choking oil exports and rapidly filling storage, pushing the country toward production cuts, according to data from Kpler, a global trade and data analytics firm.
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has around 41 million barrels of “unfilled storage capacity,” equivalent to approximately 22 days of production, according to a Kpler report published Tuesday. With limited ability to load oil for export and storage filling quickly, Kpler said NIOC has begun reducing output, noting that, as with other regional producers earlier in March, “cuts begin before storage reaches full capacity.”
NIOC holds exclusive rights to explore, drill, produce, and export crude oil and natural gas in Iran.
The disruption to Iran’s oil sector follows a US naval blockade imposed on April 13, after a nearly six-week war with the United States and Israel that began on February 28 and saw Iran restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict paused under a two-week ceasefire agreed earlier in April between Washington and Tehran, which has since been extended by US President Donald Trump.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X early Tuesday that Iran’s “creaking oil industry” is beginning to shut down, attributing the slowdown to the US naval blockade. He added that “Pumping will soon collapse,” warning that gasoline shortages in Iran could follow.
According to Kpler estimates, Iran’s crude production could fall from 2.75 million barrels per day (mbd) to 1.2–1.3 mbd by mid-May if the blockade continues. Crude exports have already declined sharply since early April, dropping to about 567,000 barrels per day from pre-war levels of 1.
